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Interpreting Results & Coalition ScenariosTo view the details of the actual results of Israel's 2006 election, So the results of your campus elections are in - now what? The first step is to calculate how many of the 120 possible Knesset seats each party would receive according to your results. To get this number, download election results worksheet (EXCEL, 100 KB) or multiply the percentage of votes each party received by 120 and round off the number (see tables below for additional help). In the real Israeli election, a party must receive at least 2% of the vote. Also, many parties have "surplus vote" deals in which a party can transfer to another party extra votes it received that are not enough to secure it an additional Knesset seat. For example, let's say that a party could win 10 seats by garnering 250,000 votes or 11 seats with 300,000 ballots. If the party actually received 275,000 votes, they would get 10 Knesset seats and could transfer their 25,000 "surplus votes" to a party with which they have an agreement. Use the chart below to estimate how many Knesset seats parties would win given your election results:
Coalition ScenariosNow that you have calculated the results in terms of Knesset seats, the hard part begins. At no time in Israel's history has a party won a majority of Knesset seats. Therefore, the largest party is charged with creating a government by forming a coalition with parties with complementary platforms - or at least a platform they do not totally reject. It's an arduous process that involves a lot of compromising. Fortunately, only a handful of people actually need to grapple with this issue in all its complexity. Yet politicians tend to be more pragmatic after elections when they no longer need to differentiate themselves from other parties fighting for voters. It is then that national and narrow interests determine whether parties will join a ruling coalition or opt to remain in "opposition." To predict likely coalition scenarios, it is helpful to understand in which "bloc" each party falls. Following is a breakdown of parties according to blocs.
Of course, this generalized view of blocs does not take into account the price - such as control over prized ministries - that each small party will try to exact for joining the ruling coalition and what leverage they have (i.e., number Knesset seats) to achieve their goals. No one said ruling in a democracy was easy, but perhaps the best approach is that of Winston Churchill who commented: "It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."
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